Originally published by AccuWeather.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists say the February frenzy of winter storms is intensifying this week, with disruptive and dangerous impacts expected that could affect over 150 million people in more than 30 states through the weekend.
“These back-to-back winter storms are responsible for rounds of slippery, sloppy and dangerous conditions, with little time to clean up or shovel out in between,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said. “The February frenzy of winter storms will continue through the middle of next week, but relief from this stormy pattern may finally be in sight.”
Relentless series of winter storms
As communities across the Midwest, mid-Atlantic and Northeast clean up and dig out from recent rounds of snow, sleet, ice and freezing rain, AccuWeather expert meteorologists say two additional winter storms are on tap through the middle of next week.
The midweek storm moving across the Midwest into the Great Lakes Wednesday is taking a more northerly route, compared to the winter storm that swept through earlier this week.
A broader area of heavy, plowable snow is expected along stretches of interstates 70, 80 and 90 at midweek. With a broad zone of 3-6 inches of snow and several pockets of 6-12 inches forecast, this major winter storm could close area roads and cause hundreds of flight cancellations and delays at the major airport hubs, including Chicago and Detroit.
This will be a big snowstorm for the major cities in southeastern Canada as well, with a general 20-30 cm (7.8-11.8 inches) or more of accumulation on the way for Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City.
An expansive icy corridor is expected with this storm from part of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic and New England. The most significant icing will again focus on part of the I-81 corridor, where tree and power line damage may be compounded due to the successive rounds of freezing rain. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will arrive later Wednesday into Wednesday night just north and west of the Northeast’s busy I-95 corridor.
“Icy impacts will surge north into portions of the Appalachians and Northeast. We could see significant ice impacts along the Interstate 81 corridor of Virginia,” DaSilva said. “This will be the third round of ice, sleet and freezing rain in the past week for millions of people in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Freezing rain brings the most dangerous impacts. Highways, bridges and sidewalks can ice over in a matter of seconds, potentially leading to car crashes and pileups.”
The storm is expected to bring mostly rain to the Ohio Valley and much of the mid-Atlantic to southern New England since it will be tracking much farther to the north than the early-week storm.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists say another winter storm could impact millions across the Central and Eastern states this weekend.
Since the weekend storm will have a bit less Arctic air to work with compared to prior storms in the East, mostly rain is likely to fall over much of the Ohio Valley during most of the storm. However, as colder air invades during the latter part of the storm this weekend, rain may end as a period of accumulating snow from Kansas City, Missouri, to St. Louis, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Ohio, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
The February frenzy pattern of back-to-back storms is expected to bring yet another blast of wintry weather in the middle of next week.
The seemingly endless parade of storms is expected to wind down after the storm in the middle of next week. Often, the caboose in a train of storms is the biggest, as it tends to mark a change in the weather pattern.
“There’s probably going to be a major storm next week, due to a strong injection of Arctic air over the northern Plains,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, “The question is does that storm try to track up along the Atlantic coast or head more to the east, across the Southern states and then out to sea.”
AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said people who work and live near rivers covered in ice should be prepared for the possibility of ice jams and flooding.
“Because of the extent of ice that has developed on area streams and rivers in portions of the Ohio Valley, the central Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic, the short-term thaw could be significant enough to trigger ice jams,” Buckingham said. “People living along unprotected areas of streams and rivers should remain vigilant for trouble late this week into the weekend, but plunging temperatures that follow the late week storm should help to mitigate the risk.”
Burn Scar areas on alert in Southern California
A major storm packing a plume of moisture that will evolve into an atmospheric river will slide southward along the California coast this week. The firehose effect will direct a period of torrential rain along the shoreline, the Coast Ranges and the lower west-facing elevations of the Sierra Nevada, with the heaviest rainfall from Thursday to Friday.
A general 2-4 inches of rain is forecast to fall along the lower elevations of the California coast. Pockets of 4-8 inches of rain is expected in the west- and southwest-facing slopes of the coastal mountains, with a Local StormMax™ of 11 inches.
Much of the rain is expected to fall in 12 hours or less, which will rapidly run off and could lead to flash flooding, mudslides and hillside collapses in steep terrain areas.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists say there is a risk of rare severe thunderstorms Thursday in San Francisco, Sacramento, and across parts of the Bay Area and Central Valley.
Isolated tornadoes, hail, and wind gusts of 50-60 mph are possible Thursday through Thursday night.
Mountain snowfall is expected to impact travel through higher elevations and passes through Friday. The snow can pile up at 2-4 inches per hour in parts of the Sierra, which could lead to road closures.
“This is the biggest storm for Southern California so far this winter. The heavy rainfall in the forecast could trigger flooding during a typical winter, but the risk for dangerous impacts is much higher this year due to the devastating wildfires in January,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. “Intense rainfall rates of half an inch or more per hour could trigger life-threatening flash flooding. Burn scars from the Palisades and Eaton wildfires are vulnerable to mudslides and destructive and dangerous debris flows.”
Porter says heavy rainfall could disrupt cleanup and recovery efforts in wildfire damage zones.
“Heavy rainfall and runoff could wash toxic ash and debris out of burn scar areas into nearby neighborhoods, waterways and eventually the Pacific Ocean,” Porter explained. “Water pollution from thousands of homes and cars that burned is a major concern this week.”
People working and living in or near burn scar areas should be prepared for the possibility of more disruptions, which could include voluntary or mandatory evacuation orders near areas at risk of mudslides or debris flows.
“AccuWeather estimates the total damage and economic loss from the Southern California wildfires at $250 billion to $275 billion. It’s a staggering loss. The long-term costs of cleanup, lost wages and jobs, business disruptions, property values decreasing, health care costs and dozens of other factors will continue to pile up in the years to come. It will be a long and difficult recovery, and this storm will complicate those efforts,” Porter said.
Severe thunderstorm risk along the Gulf Coast
AccuWeather expert meteorologists say the stormy pattern slicing across the country will bring severe thunderstorms to the Gulf Coast region on Wednesday, followed by a second round of severe thunderstorms on Saturday.
There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms with a risk of flash flooding, isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts of 55-65 mph through Wednesday night, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 75 mph across central and eastern Louisiana and southern and central Mississippi, as well as western and central Alabama.
A moderate risk of severe thunderstorms will return Saturday in northeastern Louisiana and southeastern Arkansas, as well as central Mississippi and central Alabama. AccuWeather expert meteorologists say severe thunderstorms Saturday could spin up tornadoes and produce flash flooding and damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 90.
“Some of the most potent severe thunderstorms Saturday could produce strong tornadoes that may be on the ground for more than a few minutes,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
“Warmth and moisture from the Gulf are adding extra fuel to these thunderstorms. Water temperatures in the Gulf are above the historical average right now,” DaSilva said. “People along the Gulf should be prepared for severe weather to return early this season as the Gulf waters warm up.”
Flooding concerns across the Southeast and southern Appalachians
Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across the south-central and southeastern U.S. could cause flash flooding issues through the week.
AccuWeather is forecasting 2-4 inches of rainfall through Thursday across a large area stretching from eastern Texas and Louisiana to the Tennessee Valley and the western Carolinas.
There is a potential for 5-10 inches of rain to fall on portions of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys and the southern Appalachians and Piedmont through Monday.
While there will be a break between each of the storms into early next week, each successive storm will bring an increasing potential for quick runoff into area streams. Downpours can be heavy and long-lasting enough from each storm to trigger flash flooding of some city streets and poor drainage areas on highways and secondary roads. Urban flooding is possible in Atlanta, New Orleans, Nashville, Charlotte and Houston.
Heavy rainfall could impact areas in the southern Appalachians devastated by catastrophic flooding from Helene last September. AccuWeather expert meteorologists say downpours and flooding could damage temporary infrastructure and disrupt rebuilding and recovery efforts.
